Sunday, March 22, 2009

It Ain't Over 'til It's Over

My favorite market analyst is Peter Navarro who wrote a couple of good books and has a great audio course on investing called something like "Big Picture Investing." Peter has a newsletter he sends out to folks which is one of the best things for a great perspective on what's going on and the question he's asking this week is the one that has the market buzzing:"Has the bottom been put in?"

The short answer is probably not. We're likely still moving sideways. Perhaps a question that ought to concern us more is whether when we get finished moving sideways will we break out up or down. The general competence of the current occupants of Washington doesn't make one too confident that we know the answer. Peter makes the following comment about the Fed:
" Let's start with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke -- the Princeton guy. Loyal readers will also remember that when he got appointed, I predicted, quite presciently as it would turn out, that Helicopter Ben would wind up to be the biggest fall guy in history for Alan Greenspan. When I failed to anticipate is just how bad Bernanke would be in his own right."
He goes on to make a few more less than charitable but no doubt deserved criticisms of Bernanke.
Not only did the Princeton guy help create the massive housing bubble with his easy money policies. He has now set the stage for the most comprehensive debasing of our currency the United States has ever witnessed. The even bigger problem with the debasing of our currency is it's "beggar thy neighbor" nature.
He goes on to develop this idea of "beggar thy neighbor" but the bottom line is that it won't make us any friends and Navarro characterizes our policy as "insanity." That's probably high praise. It may well be worse. Meanwhile, the American people, not always the sharpest chisels in the chiselbox are getting a little torqued at the government's favorite remedy for everything ... tax more and blow the money on any crazy scheme that someone thinks up. Maybe insanity is exactly right. The T.E.A. parties are only just beginning. The question is still when the sideways travel ends will the market continue to collapse or not? Nothing gives me much confidence that I know the answer. Meanwhile perhaps we should not be creating more debt so fast.


Talitha Halostar said...

Tiny Tim Geithner and Helicopter Ben Bernanke are going to ruin this country. They both need to GO!

Ray Schneider said...

Frankly I think the whole administration is getting off to a horrible start. If this is the change the American people signed up for, more fools they.